Superdelegates aren’t going to break for Clinton. Well, wait, they are, but only if they’re scared of her. Well wait, actually, that’s only the DNC superdelegates. The elected superdelegates will break for whoever won their state. Well, unless they don’t, because they’re totally safe seats. In which case they break for Clinton. Unless they don’t.

Fuck I hate this tea leaf reading on electability related issues. Seriously, everybody in the country has an opinion on the innermost motives of three hundred some-odd people who they couldn’t name more than three of. Any idiot with a giant head and a folksy accent is given forty five minutes on TV to expound on exactly how and why the Hon. Rep. Bordallo of Guam is going to make her endorsement decision. It’s as content-free a spectacle as we’ve seen in this country since… well, since 24 hours a day from every direction and every form of media, but it’s still annoying.

All that said, shit yeah I have an opinion! A thoughtful, well-informed sense that this AP article may not be wrong on all counts:

For years, Bill and Hillary Clinton treated the Democratic National Committee and party activists as extensions of their White House ambitions, pawns in a game of success and survival. She may pay a high price for their selfishness soon.

Top Democrats, including some inside Hillary Clinton’s campaign, say many party leaders _ the so-called superdelegates _ won’t hesitate to ditch the former New York senator for Barack Obama if her political problems persist. Their loyalty to the first couple is built on shaky ground.

Now, I sort of doubt these calculations apply to sitting legislators; while they may end up dependent on the Clintons should HRC be elected, the Clintons will be every bit as dependent on their House and Senate majorities to get anything done.

Unelected superdelegates, which is to say DNC members, are a different story. Their ability to affect the direction of the party – and stay on the Committee – is a direct function of their relationships with the currently ascendant party activists in their home state: they aren’t answerable to any voters, and aren’t likely to think about the will of the voters when casting their votes. They are, on the other hand, answerable to other party activists, so as long as they think it’s fairly plausible for Clinton to win, they’ll probably stick with her: nobody wants to be left out in the cold. If, on the other hand, it looks like Barack is probably going to take it – if they don’t feel like they’re being quite so decisive – none of them really owes the Clintons very much, and if they’ve been a little distant from the middle of things (say, they were Kerry supporters from 2004, or worked for Bradley or even Gore) they would probably be quietly thrilled to be out from under the Clinton thumb.

Or, you know, not. You know as well as I do.