Advantages of a long and/or contentious primary:
1. It’s democratic. True, it would not be ideally democratic if the ‘superdelegates’ got together in a smoke-filled room to choose the eventual nominee, but it would be even less democratic if a bunch of retired Iowans, New Hampshites, and perhaps South Carolingians got together in a bunch of retiree-filled rooms and chose the nominee two months ago, which is how it usually goes down. The primary process is carefully tuned to produce a variegated symphony of stupid. At least this one lets everybody vote.
2. There’s more to be gained as a kingmaker than as a spoiler. Rather than limp into the general election after a bloody convention fight, the second-place finisher could trade a really gracious endorsement speech for the promise of, say, the position of Senate Majority Leader, and let the winner half-limp into the GE, and whatever fate awaits him there. No, it’s not the Presidency, but as parting gifts go it’s a lot of Rice-A-Roni. Compared to the possibility of being a Ralph Nader for the next decade, it’s even better. You get to comb your hair, for one.
(Also, unlike in 1968, the primary issue separating the candidates is ego. Yes, there is another war going on, but the difference between the candidates is just in the degree of their non-committal wetness. Yes, Krugman like Hillary’s healthcare plan better, but it’s hard to tear apart a convention with an army of tweedy, 50-something academics. And there’s certainly some identity politics solidarity involved here, but, as the Democratic Party has never nominated anyone who wasn’t an old white man, there is a clearly a deep and abiding capacity within the party faithful to vote for someone who isn’t black and/or female. Worse than trying to “burn down the party” and succeeding, from the point of view of the candidate, is to try to burn down the party and have your supporters decide that they really aren’t that into you. AWK-WARD!!)
3. McCain can’t run against a candidate until a candidate exists. Right now, John McCain is tasked with attacking a cypher, a genderless, ethnicityless everyperson who is too insidery/inexperienced, did/didn’t oppose the Iraq War, does/does not support NAFTA, and so on. But, consider - what if Hillary doesn’t win? I kid – I kid because I love. But before beginning a proper campaign, the Republicans have to decide to howl about the threat to the Republic posed by the imminent election of a possible Lesbian In College or a dusky, foreign Manchurian candidate. Unless it turns out that Wellesley is a madrasah or Michelle Obama is a man, every day before a winner is named is a day lost to the noise machine.
March 6, 2008 at 6:30 pm
I like. I like.
March 6, 2008 at 7:08 pm
You forgot Number 4:
For the first time, in a generation, more than six Democrats have actually gotten to vote for the Democratic nominee in a primary.
March 6, 2008 at 7:23 pm
I sort of agree, except that I would vastly prefer to not be conscious for the next couple of months.
Also, the only difference between the candidates is that one of them specifically tries to irritate me, and I don’t understand why.
March 6, 2008 at 8:03 pm
1. Senate Majority isn’t a prize unless the person actually want’s to be Senate Majority Leader. It’s actually not as cool as when LBJ was throwing down. I know. There’s actually two prizes: money via a corporate job or President, they both have access to corporate money.
2. It’s already over. The SDs aren’t voting for Hillary because she won’t have more popular votes. I can see seating Florida because the GOP forced that move on the DNC, unlike MIchigan, but they’re not gonna break the rules to please Hillary. They like Obama more and his nomination would be within DNC rules which most in the DNC have to follow to keep their 1982 reformed jobs.
3. This is stupid, maybe even retarded. John McCain is benefiting, but enjoy.
4. Whatever.
March 6, 2008 at 8:08 pm
There are 970,000 voters standing between Hillary and Obama, because they’ll share a portion of the votes going forward, Hillary won’t have the margins necessary to win under any reasonable extrapolation of reasonable projections of the remaining states. I mean Hillary could start breaking off 30 point wins and still not beat Obama. It’s like that.
March 6, 2008 at 8:22 pm
Plus you put the voter in the booth, and he/she thinks it’s a tie, or there’s an even chance for both candidates, and there isn’t. When the people in Ohio figure out that Hillary couldn’t win from that point. It’s not good for the general.
We’re still in great shape we should win 1.7-1, now maybe we’ll win 1.3-1.
March 6, 2008 at 9:26 pm
She’ll have to really burn him to a crisp to win. Nice thing to do to your party, especially since she’s clearly gambling on long odds. (Or maybe she’s working with “THE Math,” or there are some microtrends that only certain political geniuses can see, etc.)
March 6, 2008 at 10:05 pm
God DAMN I missed you guys.
March 6, 2008 at 10:07 pm
So using your calculator JJ, even if Hill won 60% of every election from here to the convention, then she would still be down 1613-1596. What good would this bring?
March 6, 2008 at 11:33 pm
I swear I never before suffered from CDS, but Hill’s latest strategy of playing up to McCain’s credentials to be president in order to question the viability of her opponent, her party’s likely nominee, is really pissing me off.
This is getting to be like those pileups on the freeway, you just can’t look away. It’ll be interesting to see how Team Obama responds.
March 6, 2008 at 11:53 pm
They should respond by leaving a flaming bag of shit on the Clinton’s porch, because if the tables were turned, Barack Obama sure as hell would have been out of the race by now.
March 7, 2008 at 1:20 am
[...] Posted by Sifu Tweety Fish under Uncategorized Much as I hate to disagree publicly with my cobl-ogger, circumstances have forced me to admit that Adrian Belew actually kind of [...]
March 7, 2008 at 7:14 am
1. We are New Hampshiites.
3. This is correct, although counterintuitive. From a framing standpoint, probably the best thing for the Democrats to do is keep the internecine grenade throwing to a minimum, and the attacks at the level of a dull roar. That way the noise machine stays quiet for now, and little in the way of ammo is provided for later.
March 7, 2008 at 7:20 am
(go barack)
March 7, 2008 at 9:05 am
It would be even less democratic if a bunch of retired Iowans, New Hampshites, and perhaps South Carolingians got together in a bunch of retiree-filled rooms and chose the nominee two months ago, which is how it usually goes down. The primary process is carefully tuned to produce a variegated symphony of stupid.
This alone is worth every penny I have ever paid to Poorman Enterprises, Inc. Especially “South Carolingians”. That’s the good stuff.
March 7, 2008 at 10:53 am
“But, consider – what if Hillary doesn’t win? I kid – I kid because I love.”
How could she possibly lose? It’s not as if the GOP will bring out the old “You were for the war before you were against it” cudgel. They’d be too ashamed to use that yet again.
March 7, 2008 at 6:15 pm
[...] The Editors on the benefits of a long and contested primary. It’s democratic. True, it would not be ideally democratic if the ’superdelegates’ got together in a smoke-filled room to choose the eventual nominee, but it would be even less democratic if a bunch of retired Iowans, New Hampshites, and perhaps South Carolingians got together in a bunch of retiree-filled rooms and chose the nominee two months ago, which is how it usually goes down. The primary process is carefully tuned to produce a variegated symphony of stupid. At least this one lets everybody vote […] [...]
March 8, 2008 at 4:58 am
What about the “other” math?
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/03/dirty-delegate-truths.html