I’m not saying Obama is doomed to lose the election. I’m saying he needs a change in strategy. Barraging your opponent with negative ads may not be the hopiest thing a candidate can do, but it is effective. Just sayin’, peeps.
For the record, we at The Institute have been calling for Caligula-shaming rat orgies for some time. And all Obama and his people are giving us is a coquettish twirl of the tail. Seriously. This is starting to piss me off. FIGHT. Get off the fncking mat and F.I.G.H.T. Our country is this close to ushering in the Rapture come November and all the Obama people want to do is tut and tut.
Poor Obama was so lulled to sleep by the media’s intense hatred of Hitlery that he actually thought they’d be on his side in a matchup with McCain. Or that they’d at least play it more or less straight up [Insert Keyboard Kommandos pause slide] BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
He’s been so meek and mild – so restrained – that the amesiacs are getting nostaligic for Bush. I shit you not. I can understand that Obama might not want to sully his pristine, changey, hopey image - and that being a scary black man anything he says and does is immediately scary and black - but Americans are only captivated by happy talk for so long. A.D.D. being what it is. Sometimes you need to wow the audience with car chases, gun battles and explosions. Will Smith made it safe for a black guy to do that kind of thing, so blow some shit up already.
Oh, and hammer health care. Relentlessly. Consider that the post-coitus cuddle session that seals the deal.
[UPDATE: OK, this is better. Fight back on the bullshit elitist charges with some actual return fire - not the "unfair" response that ends up sounding like a whine.
Positives of the ad: Sufficiently low-brow. Devoid of wonkish details. Plain language. Cheap shot. I call that a win all around. And see what happens when you put your opponent on the defensive - they're left stammering incoherently. Which McCain is prone to do given he's, like, 113 years old or something. Keep at it.]
August 21, 2008 at 8:28 am
Give him time. There is such a thing as ad fatigue. Let the debates cement their positions and impressions upon the ignorati, then let Obama’s mediators hammer McCain on the glittering lights of 10,000 maniacal flies swarming in and out and around McCain’s ass/head/political protuberance.
Some folks think that the first 1/2 niggar to get into the Oval Orifice is gonna get there playing by conventional rules according to conventional wisdom. Gotta be smart and asymmetrical-y.
Uh-uh. Now, I know that you and Theeditors are also smart and asym, but you ain’t the first black dude to become the Dem candidates *still* kicking McCain’s ass at the polls, so I think maybe there’s a reason Obama and the crew of the Black Pearl aren’t following your wisdom at this point?
August 21, 2008 at 8:29 am
“Gotta be smart and asymmetrical-y.
Uh-uh.”
The “Uh-uh” should go before not after “GTotta be smart…”
August 21, 2008 at 8:40 am
*still* kicking McCain’s ass at the polls
Is he though? That’s my point. The polls are finally moving against Obama. Zogby’s most recent had McCain ahead.
I don’t want this thing to be that close. Close enough for October surprises. Close enough to steal.
I agree it’s still relatively early, but he has to come stronger than he’s been. Don’t let this McCain momentum get out of hand because the media is dying to pump that storyline mercilessly.
August 21, 2008 at 8:45 am
(1) is it really time to panic already?
(2) could everybody panicking now helpfully provide evidence of whether or not they panicked prematurely during the primaries (if they were Obama supporters)?
(3) what’s the correct timing, if you’re a well-run campaign against a weak, somewhat underfunded opponent, to make your rope-a-dope pay off?
(4) say, what’s the first phase of rope-a-dope again? Doesn’t that mean you’re losing? I don’t want to lose!
AAH PANIC HOLY CRAP THE END IS NIGH WE ALL WELCOME PRESIDENT CRAZY ALZHEIMERS McBOMBYBOMB I’M MOVING TO CANADA LIKE FIVE TIMES.
August 21, 2008 at 9:01 am
Uh, yeah. Plus: the sooner you play those cards, the more time they have to counter them. I know nothing about boxing, but if you’re going to go in for the kill and finish him off, you don’t also-have-done-it three rounds earlier. That just makes you tired and gives him hope for having survived it.
Block that metaphor, as always.
All these take-the-gloves-off calls are not wrong, they’re just premature. Let’s see them in October, if at all.
August 21, 2008 at 9:08 am
Give him time.
On the one hand I believe this, about half of the time. But on the other hand, I said this a lot about Kerry. I reassured people that he was a smart guy; he had a plan; he would go on the attack at the right time. And, you know, that didn’t happen. I am not a person who thinks Kerry ran a horrible campaign. It was pretty good as these things go. But it was not designed for the people he was up against.
So if someone would reassure me that Obama really *does* have a plan, and really *will* go on the attack at the right time, I’d be extremely grateful. I understand why the Obama campaign doesn’t want to lay out their detailed strategy on the blogs, but maybe a tiny hint of where this is going, just to keep up morale? You know like, “watch the skies on September 25th?”
August 21, 2008 at 9:10 am
And, as I am not a boxing fan, I’d appreciate a rundown of how rope-a-dope works, in boxing and metaphorically. Because “keeping our powder dry” didn’t turn out to be such a good metaphor. Because fighting back isn’t like powder. You don’t run out. It’s more like weight lifting – the more you do the more you can do. Is this rope-a-dope thing a better match for reality?
August 21, 2008 at 9:20 am
What Emma said.
Someone has to explain to me how you can’t fight back until October because you’ll already have fought back too much and people will have you-have-a-spine-fatigue.
OK, maybe it’s not time for the all-out rat fuckery that I so crave, but does there have to be a moratorium on swift, strong responses that cut McCain to pieces like the paper tiger that he is?
Say what you will about the Clenis, but the son-of-a-bitch knew how to hit someone back fast and hard. Harder usually. Obama needs to learn this skill.
August 21, 2008 at 9:25 am
So if someone would reassure me that Obama really *does* have a plan, and really *will* go on the attack at the right time, I’d be extremely grateful.
Just going on the basis of his last hard-fought electoral campaign — you know, the one that was, oh, three months ago — I’m happy to reassure on that count.
Obama isn’t Kerry. You can tell that just by looking at him, but he also wasn’t the consensus candidate, he didn’t benefit from a lot of bullshit electability calculus, he doesn’t have the same old lose-happy consultants advising him, he’s done pretty much exactly the right thing at every point this cycle so far and, not to put to fine a point on it, he’s a way more charismatic and compelling candidate than Kerry ever was. Plus, nobody who’s not a professional reporter likes McCain, who is old and crazy and a warmonger and representing a party in deep disgrace and disarray.
But hey, panic if you feel like it. I don’t get it, but it’s so popular with the kids.
August 21, 2008 at 9:30 am
OK, maybe it’s not time for the all-out rat fuckery that I so crave, but does there have to be a moratorium on swift, strong responses that cut McCain to pieces like the paper tiger that he is?
No?
Also, remember who has the most invested in the idea that somehow the rapid response war room won the election for Clinton: Carville and Stephanopoulos. Also, remember which former President was just heavily involved in a losing campaign by a prohibitive favorite.
August 21, 2008 at 9:32 am
Which is not to say that ratfucking isn’t swell times and much encouraged. But that really oughtn’t be coordinated by the campaign anyhow.
August 21, 2008 at 10:34 am
But that really oughtn’t be coordinated by the campaign anyhow
You’re absolutely right. It should be coordinated the same way the McCain campaign doesn’t coordinate their ratfuckery.
Also, remember who has the most invested in the idea that somehow the rapid response war room won the election for Clinton: Carville and Stephanopoulos
I’m not invested in the idea. I just remember being amazed that a Dem was fighting back that hard, that quickly and that effectively.
Maybe it didn’t impact the outcome of the elections he won, but it sure seemed to. Either way, I doubt it hurt any.
But hey, panic if you feel like it. I don’t get it, but it’s so popular with the kids.
Personally, I’m not panicking. I’m just anxiously awaiting the upping of the game that I truly think is coming. This post is my way of covering my bets. Just in case Obama’s camp thinks they can skate to victory against Team Rove.
Just going on the basis of his last hard-fought electoral campaign — you know, the one that was, oh, three months ago — I’m happy to reassure on that count.
Key differences:
1. Obama enjoyed preferential media treatment that he is not getting now. That matters a lot.
2. Obama could make charges of racism against a fellow Dem, and they had an effect – given that the Dems care about these things, and rely on a constituency that cares.
Against McCain, the racism charges are viewed as a feature, not a bug. This line of retorts fell massively flat – if not serving to outright solidify McCain’s base.
They haven’t seemed to settle in on their core themes of attack. They should, you know, get on it.
But look, this is one of those times where I want absolutely nothing more than to be proved to be a nervous, twitchy chicken little of a political junkie.
8 years of WPE can do that to the best of us, and I wasn’t even close to that level 8 years back.
August 21, 2008 at 10:36 am
One more thought: Hillary’s campaign team was terrible. It was nothing like the Clenis’s. Some of the same people were involved, but many of the old guard were ignored.
Further, Mark Penn.
August 21, 2008 at 10:37 am
dudes, hopey was around in 2004, and probably observed the swiftboating with some interest. methinks he’s going to hoist mccain on his own petard (whatever the fuck that is). ie. giving him enough rope (all this celebrity crap and such), to hang him, when the time comes. the timing is gonna be the key thing, not the fact that it’s gonna happen. my 2 cents.
August 21, 2008 at 10:38 am
One other point: I personally think Obama would be crazy to go hard negative a week before the convention. Way to take the wind out of your own sails. If I were managing his campaign (which thank god none of us are) I would wait until the GOP convention, or just before, and then start hammering Mr. 7-to-15-houses-and-all-I-want-to-do-is-bomb-countries-I’ve-never-heard-of every way you can — which won’t be that many, because the media doesn’t want to hear it.
August 21, 2008 at 10:43 am
Not to be all bi-polar and such but I’m with Sifu and curv3ball. For ~ 30 years, I’ve been stuck with timid Dems (don’t confuse me with counter examples, most DC dems are timid little fuckers). I really really really don’t want Barry to be a timid Dem, but he sure is acting like one. I’m with Emma Anne, send us DFHs a secret sign – I’m getting all itchy.
August 21, 2008 at 10:45 am
I would wait until the GOP convention, or just before, and then start hammering Mr. 7-to-15-houses-and-all-I-want-to-do-is-bomb-countries-I’ve-never-heard-of every way you can — which won’t be that many, because the media doesn’t want to hear it
Sounds like a plan. 10 days till the convention.
Faster, please.
August 21, 2008 at 12:25 pm
I’ve been stuck with timid Dems (don’t confuse me with counter examples, most DC dems are timid little fuckers). I really really really don’t want Barry to be a timid Dem, but he sure is acting like one.
I don’t think so. Maybe on the superficial level he hasn’t wasted his breath — while polling ahead — by getting immediately in the gutter like Grandpa. But he’s more organized, his campaign is tighter and his money advantage is larger than any Democrat in decades.
They don’t leak. They don’t bitch to the media. They organize and develop a field operation. Messaging will come fast and furious. Votes are what count.
August 21, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Tying McCain to bottom-feeders like Reed & Abrahamoff is a mere “coquettish twirl of the tail”? Sounds like you want his staff to Photoshop Cindy tossing some Hell’s Angel’s salad.
Also, it’s kind of hard to see how an irrelevancy like McCain’s number of homes is “better” than nailing him for being a corrupt criminal son-of-a-bitch. This ad may make YOU happy, but politically, it’s full of fail. A lot of GOP folks ADMIRE him for being rich … get it? Goopers are hardly going to cry over McCain’s filthy lucre – by & large, they don’t resent it, they ENVY it. No one looks up to a felon.
Most folks have already long since made up their minds – this entire campaign is about that other 5-8% of voters: the mighty Unsures & Undecideds. The real objective here isn’t getting your jollies by trashing McCain – it’s convincing wishy-washy GOP voters he’s not worth going to the polls for in November. So figure out what they do & don’t like, & tailor your attack around THAT instead.
Of course, pollsters would NEVER manipulate polls to artificially create a horse-race where none exists, right? What with their deep ties to news-media that desperately need a horse-race to sell ad time for politics (a subject that’s notorious for inspiring mass-channel-changing), I mean.
Hint: at least 90% of voters don’t give a flying fuck about the campaign before AT LEAST the conventions, if not the debates. Nor do they necessarily have infinite intestinal fortitude for yet more Rovian douchebaggery, what with 8 long ugly years’ experience as to where that gets them – more & more of them are probably sensing that if Real Issues don’t get tackled, & fast, that their collective goose is VERY cooked.
This is not 2000 anymore. The GOP tried Rove’s “oh-so-reliable” Ratfuck Two-Step in 2006, & they got curb-stomped. That should tell you something. Yet you seem quite enthusaistic to play your opponent’s game, one in which surely you must know the (media) table is already tilted in their favor, & they’re much more experienced than you.
Jay B. has got it – votes count. Childish revenge-fantasies do not.
August 21, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Tying McCain to bottom-feeders like Reed & Abrahamoff is a mere “coquettish twirl of the tail”?
Honestly, that ad likely went over the head of most viewers (at least the ones it reached – it was only aired in Atlanta). Do you really think most voters know who Abramoff is? And the folks that recognize Reed probably still like him.
We need simpler stuff. See the update. Much better.
Also, it’s kind of hard to see how an irrelevancy like McCain’s number of homes is “better” than nailing him for being a corrupt criminal son-of-a-bitch. This ad may make YOU happy, but politically, it’s full of fail. A lot of GOP folks ADMIRE him for being rich … get it? Goopers are hardly going to cry over McCain’s filthy lucre – by & large, they don’t resent it, they ENVY it. No one looks up to a felon.
O’s ads shouldn’t be aimed at the GOP. They should be aimed at people feeling economically crunched right now. People that are so frustrated, they’ll vote for a Democrat – even a black guy with a scary name.
Further, if McCain is scoring points with these folks by painting Obama as an out of touch wealthy, elitist, O needs to hit back on exactly those terms. That’s the way to fight back. He comes at you with a knife, you come back with a gun.
Kerry let Bush get away with his “have a beer with me” everyman schtick. While Kerry was rich! Rich I tell ya! See – he windsurfs!!!!
Kerry should have been plastering Prescott Yale etc, all over the airwaves. Do. Not. Cede. Anything.
Most folks have already long since made up their minds – this entire campaign is about that other 5-8% of voters: the mighty Unsures & Undecideds. The real objective here isn’t getting your jollies by trashing McCain – it’s convincing wishy-washy GOP voters he’s not worth going to the polls for in November. So figure out what they do & don’t like, & tailor your attack around THAT instead.
See above re: economic insecurity. My whole point is to target that middle.
Jay B. has got it – votes count. Childish revenge-fantasies do not.
Well, yeah. I’m talking about how to get votes. And if you think that rat fucking has run its course, well, you make GOP campaign bosses very happy. Leave it all to them, and take the high road to Dukakisville.
August 21, 2008 at 1:30 pm
Childish revenge fantasies make me go from:
A – Yes, I’ll vote for Obama, give his campaign money and talk excitedly about him but he’s still a timid Dem to..
B – Hell Yes I’ll vote for him! He’s a fighter!! In fact, I’m gonna grab my friends and relatives by the short hairs and get them down to the polling place in November!!
(notice I used exclamation points in option B)
sometimes you do have to stop smacking your base around and throw them a bone.
August 21, 2008 at 1:32 pm
This ad may make YOU happy, but politically, it’s full of fail. A lot of GOP folks ADMIRE him for being rich … get it?
Jim, it ain’t that he has a lot of homes–it’s that he doesn’t know how many he owns. And this at a time when historic numbers of homeowners are, like, really fucking worried about keeping their one home. This was a major gaffe, and I’m please to see Obama jumping on it like stink on shit.
And nobody gives a shit what “GOP folks admire”. They’re beside the point. Republican self-identification is at around 30% right now. Let them admire whatever the hell they want. It’s the other 70% that this is aimed at, and I have a feeling it’s going to have an effect.
August 21, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Yes, I’m so glad to see this ad, and also that they are finally leaping to the attack.
We can anticipate that the next response will be all about how mean Barak is attacking poor little homeowner Cindy McCain — with the subtext of black man attacks blond woman.
I hope Obama is ready for that one.
August 21, 2008 at 2:18 pm
Well, yeah. I’m talking about how to get votes.
So am I. The messaging is aimed at, what, 10% of the likely independent voters — in hopes it may sway 2 or 3 percent?
But an organized, energized GOTV — something bigger and more sophisticated than the fundies ever knew — is worth way way more because you’re dealing with the 50% of people who don’t usually vote, or who don’t figure into the normal electoral calculus. I’d say Obama is, right now, being underpolled by 4 to 5% just because of it.
August 21, 2008 at 2:40 pm
“Which is not to say that ratfucking isn’t swell times and much encouraged.”
A statement that truly epitomizes why this is the institute of poor man. Rich men can afford fat cats to fuck.
August 21, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Stolen from commenter Jeffrey over at Kevin’s:
“McCain called Obama elitists. People who don’t know how many glass houses they live in shouldn’t throw stones.”
I’m feeling much better today; thank you Sifu et al. Not that I don’t still want my DFH secret sign, though.
Note: this is not just about the 10% in the middle. It is also very much about turnout. Obama needs an excited base; he really does.
One thing the Obama campaign is really stressing in Colorado is voting by mail. That way they can get remind those passionate but flighty 20-somethings to vote as often as needed. Clever.
August 21, 2008 at 3:41 pm
But an organized, energized GOTV — something bigger and more sophisticated than the fundies ever knew — is worth way way more because you’re dealing with the 50% of people who don’t usually vote, or who don’t figure into the normal electoral calculus.
Well, sure. Awesome. Obama’s GOTV operation is quite impressive.
But I don’t see this as an “either” “or” thing. I see it as a “both” thing.
GOTV. Campaign hard. Respond to attacks with blistering attacks. Go negative when applicable. Be hopey and changey when you have to. Maudlin, etc.
I don’t want to lose. I don’t want it to be so close it can be stolen. I want to win big. I want to win fillibuster-proof big.
For that, we fight for every inch.
As I said: Concede Nothing.
August 21, 2008 at 4:04 pm
For Emma Ann – the best explanation of “rope-a-dope” can be seen here:
Obama = white trunks
McCain = red trunks
At this point, Obama has been hanging back, up against the ropes for 7 rounds, while McCain has been using up his energy punching and moving and doing all of the work.
Obama prepared himself to take some punches to the body, but he does a great job protecting his head.
By the 8th round, McCain is exhausted. He’s staggering, throwing wild punches, and is just generally frutrated that he can’t get to Obama.
Then, with less than 1/2 minute to go in the round, Obama sees his opening, throws some deadly punches to McCain’s head, and McCain goes down.
Fight over. Obama wins.
Obama hung on the ropes until the time was right. McCain was a dope for falling into the trap.
Rope a dope.
August 21, 2008 at 4:09 pm
To republicans elitist doesn’t mean wealthy. It means educated.
August 22, 2008 at 8:07 am
THank you Mr./Ms. Snarkle. Amazing video. I will retire to consider this.
August 22, 2008 at 4:29 pm
I have had less trouble making my house payment now than I did when bought it ten years ago. I work in the restaurant world. If anything all the fools buying more house than they can afford have only helped me. Neighboorhood home values have only gone up (tripling the value of the home I own), so actually I look at this mortage crisis as a good thing. The only bad thing I can tell is that along with the home value tripling, so have my property taxes… :( Doofus no like taxes.
August 24, 2008 at 2:00 pm
If the mainstream media isn’t going to show McCain for what he is, Obama’s going to need to do it, instead. Simply hanging back and answering charges or responding “Please conduct a above-board campaign” is going to do a world of good for the Republicans.
What is it about Democrats, anyway? Why have they decided that the only road is the high road to Defeat? Why do they cave in on everything? Why are they so nervous to take a definitive stand when every poll shows that the voting public majority is against the things the Republicans want?
Sigh. Why am I still even living here? I should have left for Belgium in the 1970s when I had that program directorship offer at a startup radio station. :(