I’m liking this Andrew Bacevich fellow more and more:
What is it about Afghanistan, possessing next to nothing that the United States requires, that justifies such lavish attention? In Washington, this question goes not only unanswered but unasked. Among Democrats and Republicans alike, with few exceptions, Afghanistan’s importance is simply assumed—much the way fifty years ago otherwise intelligent people simply assumed that the United States had a vital interest in ensuring the survival of South Vietnam. As then, so today, the assumption does not stand up to even casual scrutiny.
Tune in to the Sunday talk shows or consult the op-ed pages and you might conclude otherwise. Those who profess to be in the know insist that the fight in Afghanistan is essential to keeping America safe. The events of September 11, 2001, ostensibly occurred because we ignored Afghanistan. Preventing the recurrence of those events, therefore, requires that we fix the place.
Yet this widely accepted line of reasoning overlooks the primary reason why the 9/11 conspiracy succeeded: federal, state, and local agencies responsible for basic security fell down on the job, failing to install even minimally adequate security measures in the nation’s airports. The national-security apparatus wasn’t paying attention—indeed, it ignored or downplayed all sorts of warning signs, not least of all Osama bin Laden’s declaration of war against the United States. Consumed with its ABC agenda—“anything but Clinton” was the Bush administration’s watchword in those days—the people at the top didn’t have their eye on the ball. So we let ourselves get sucker-punched. Averting a recurrence of that awful day does not require the semipermanent occupation and pacification of distant countries like Afghanistan. Rather, it requires that the United States erect and maintain robust defenses.
Fixing Afghanistan is not only unnecessary, it’s also likely to prove impossible. Not for nothing has the place acquired the nickname Graveyard of Empires. Of course, Americans, insistent that the dominion over which they preside does not meet the definition of empire, evince little interest in how Brits, Russians, or other foreigners have fared in attempting to impose their will on the Afghans. As General David McKiernan, until just recently the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, put it, “There’s always an inclination to relate what we’re doing with previous nations,” adding, “I think that’s a very unhealthy comparison.” McKiernan was expressing a view common among the ranks of the political and military elite: We’re Americans. We’re different. Therefore, the experience of others does not apply.
Of course, Americans like McKiernan who reject as irrelevant the experience of others might at least be willing to contemplate the experience of the United States itself. Take the case of Iraq, now bizarrely trumpeted in some quarters as a “success” and even more bizarrely seen as offering a template for how to turn Afghanistan around.
Much has been made of the United States Army’s rediscovery of (and growing infatuation with) counterinsurgency doctrine, applied in Iraq beginning in late 2006 when President Bush announced his so-called surge and anointed General David Petraeus as the senior U.S. commander in Baghdad. Yet technique is no substitute for strategy. Violence in Iraq may be down, but evidence of the promised political reconciliation that the surge was intended to produce remains elusive. America’s Mesopotamian misadventure continues. [...]
Six-plus years after it began, Operation Iraqi Freedom has consumed something like a trillion dollars—with the meter still running—and has taken the lives of more than forty-three hundred American soldiers. Meanwhile, in Baghdad and other major Iraqi cities, car bombs continue to detonate at regular intervals, killing and maiming dozens. Anyone inclined to put Iraq in the nation’s rearview mirror is simply deluded. Not long ago General Raymond Odierno, Petraeus’s successor and the fifth U.S. commander in Baghdad, expressed the view that the insurgency in Iraq is likely to drag on for an-other five, ten, or fifteen years. Events may well show that Odierno is an optimist.
Given the embarrassing yet indisputable fact that this was an utterly needless war—no Iraqi weapons of mass destruction found, no ties between Saddam Hussein and the jihadists established, no democratic transformation of the Islamic world set in motion, no road to peace in Jerusalem discovered in downtown Baghdad—to describe Iraq as a success, and as a model for application elsewhere, is nothing short of obscene. The great unacknowledged lesson of Iraq is the one that the writer Norman Mailer identified decades ago: “Fighting a war to fix something works about as good as going to a whorehouse to get rid of a clap.” [emph. added]
Don’t get me wrong, I’m quite pleased that we prevailed in WWII (with the Soviets doing the lion’s share of course), and it would be heartless to fail to recognize and respect the sacrifice of all the people that fought and died to ensure that outcome. But one of the drawbacks to that victory, and the Greatest Generation hagiography, is the fact that it reinforced our confidence in the awesome redemptive capacity of war. It is a force that gives us meaning, to coin a phrase.
I realize that, humans being humans, and Americans being humans themselves, we’d have fought a number of bloody, mindless, counterproductive wars even without that mythologizing. Humans have always enjoyed a bit of the old mass slaughter. It’s good for ratings.
But it would be nice if we could focus a little more on the fact that wars really aren’t good for much outside of creating piles of dismembered body parts, rubble and broken lives, and spend less time daydreaming about the valor of fighting the sui generis good fight.
Justifiable and necessary wars come about very, very rarely. That’s one of the reasons WWII enjoys such a special place in our collective hearts: it’s the one war we can almost all agree we had to fight. But we’ve let our sentimentality get the better of us such that we’re on the permanent hunt for the next war that will bring back that loving feeling.
Iraq wasn’t it, despite the Keyboard Kommandos’ vicarious rush early on. And Afghanistan, even with its more justifiable initiation, won’t get it done either. Let’s go home.
August 7, 2009 at 2:39 pm
I confess to konsuming das KOOLADE. I’m not even sure what hallucinations I’m seeing but somehow I’m not so freaked out over our current presence in Afghanistan. It’s that ” even with its more justifiable initiation”, even though I’m one of the very few people I know who was decidedly and vocally against that war and the entire Bush doctrine from the beginning.
I guess it’s a wanting of closure, like a battered wife who wants a few more beatings for old time’s sake before she puts a bullet in her soon-to-be ex’s head.
There is one stray gleam of logic to my current accepting attitude of American military in Afghanistan: place is so fucked up by so many empires bent on committing hari-kari via the Wakhan corridor (on a map it’s a wicked looking shiv) that we can’t possible fuck it up worse than it is and might actually leave it better off. A little bit.
I don’t know. Can’t we just make a photo collage of all the generals, who’ve prosecuted war under Bush, with dicks photoshopped on their foreheads? Or Cheney pohotoshopped on their Dicks?
And personally, I think that any decent whorehouse should have a licensed pennicillin injector on staff, so that for a marginal extra fee…
August 7, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Gotta disagree on this one. Allowing Afghanistan to return to its complete failed-state status will allow the religious loons now holed up in Waziristan to take over again. It’s entirely possible that they will consolidate their position, then work to finish toppling Pakistan’s government to get their hands on Pakistan’s nukes (or at least the technology).
There’s an extremely high probability that we will completely bungle Afghanistan (again). However, simply walking away guarantees bad outcome.
August 8, 2009 at 3:29 am
The Taliban, a poorly trained guerilla force with light weapons, is going to defeat the Pakistani army, which is a highly trained force with scads of heavy armor, arty, an extremely advanced air force with f-16s, etc? Come on, they couldn’t even hold a bit of territory when the Pakistanis decided to take it from them.
The Afghan Taliban does not want Pakistan first of all. Second, their main patron is…Pakistan. They are Pakistan’s proxy force in Afghanistan. So, after losing their support and arms provided from Pakistan, they’re going to…somehow defeat the Pakistani army?
Not gonna happen. The Afghan Taliban is good at defeating their indigenous rivals because the Pakistanis help them. They are good at draining a foreign occupier because of their local advantage and, again, because of Pakistan’s support. But that is not a force that can launch a military campaign capable of defeating the Paksitanis on their own turf without any source of aid from a foreign power. Even with such aid, which they won’t have, it would highly unlikely.
August 10, 2009 at 5:55 am
Derelict, I feel that you are misapprehending the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan on several levels. First, as curv3ball stated, the Taliban are not likely capable of taking on the Pakistani army. Pakistan is a troubled country, but the populace has no love for the Pakistani Taliban, who are mostly a local phenomenon in the majority Pashtun North-West.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban are strongest in the Pashtun South-East. In all cases, they appear to be a very local-oriented, and Pashtun-linked group. Even in the event of a second Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, there is no evidence that they would be interested in the kind of transnational terrorism that Al Qaeda focuses on.
August 7, 2009 at 3:09 pm
Sorry, but that is a completely asinine opinion. All we needed to do was beef up airport security? Have you read ANYTHING about airport security? There’s basically no way to stop people who are determined and have the means and will. If they didn’t attack the airplanes, they would have attacked buses, or buildings, or trains, or anything. The only thing you can do, as with piracy, is prevent them from having a place to get started, and cut off their means (money). You can’t let them accumulate power and just hope that you can stay on defense your whole life. They WILL get through. Whether or not the occasional loss of life and limb in the continental US is worth the expenditure to rebuild Afghanistan, that’s a call for other people to make. But claiming that we could have just avoided the whole thing by being extra super careful is dumb.
August 7, 2009 at 4:51 pm
He didn’t say beefing up airport security was all that was needed. He said that was one of many things that would have helped to avert that disaster. Work on your reading comprehension skills before calling people names.
August 8, 2009 at 3:34 am
That’s not exactly what he’s suggesting. The cutting them off at the source involves special ops, airstrikes and a massive ramp up of intel and law enforcement. Terrorists can plot and act from anywhere. More attacks have originated – or been planned from – Europe. Afghanistan is not the only place they can act from, and even if we end our occupation, we would still disrupt al-Qaeda activities from afar. This is not about total abandonment, or letting them accumulate power. This is about the best means to achieve our objectives.
Before 9/11, we weren’t even trying to do that. With such vigilance and purpose, we could achieve it from a distance. But they have, and will have, other places to plan attacks from. Like, again, Europe. And that’s where the intel and law enforcement prongs come in.
RAND recently came to the same conclusion that most counterterrorism scholars come to: war is not the best means to thwart terrorism.
August 7, 2009 at 4:04 pm
I don’t buy the argument that fighting a successful counter-jihad in the Afg/Pakistan region will make America safe from terrorist attacks, and it wouldn’t have taken too much more care than was exercised to prevent 911. That was one Holy Roller Three Stooges Chinese fire drill from beginning to end, and it took massive does of stupidity and apathy all around to let it happen. If ever an ounce of prevention was worth a pound of cure… and Israel wouldn’t exist if it weren’t for severe internal preventative measures. They live by checkpoint Charlyism in the face of unremitting terrorism of a scale that thoroughly dwarfs the standoff between America and a buncha crazies not next door or down the street but across an ocean.
Kenmeer’s Bottom Line: severely consequential fuckups, be they initiative like kaiser Wilhelm’s push into WWI, or reactive, like our failure to prevent 911 and our subsequent reaction to it, create crazy-making waves that rock their world for decades…
August 7, 2009 at 4:07 pm
(*ahem*) massive doses, not does, although that is a striking image, especially in terms of Bambi vs. Godzilla II: The reckoning.
August 7, 2009 at 4:10 pm
“I don’t know. Can’t we just make a photo collage of all the generals, who’ve prosecuted war under Bush, with dicks photoshopped on their foreheads? Or Cheney pohotoshopped on their Dicks?”
In ase yez izz too insensitive to recognize a plea for world peace when you see one, that was a plea for world peace.
August 7, 2009 at 9:32 pm
I’m the anti-kenmeer: I more-or-less supported the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, and continued to feel that it was at least, in principal a good idea even as I opposed the Iraq War from the instant the Bush administration began to make noises about it.
I’ve since come to believe that I was very wrong not to have opposed Afghanistan from the get go.
As with Iraq, the least bad option with Afghanistan is to bring all the troops home ASAP.
What Bacevich (and Norman Mailer and curv3ball) say: war is almost never the answer, despite the fact that we’re better at it than any other nation at the moment.
August 7, 2009 at 9:35 pm
“with the Soviets doing the lion’s share of course”
Apparently some people think the war in the Pacific was a weekend sail off Nantucket.
August 8, 2009 at 3:35 am
No, it was a brutal and costly military campaign. Compare to the German/Russian front, and the amount of military chewed up on both sides of that front. Please read what I actually wrote.
August 10, 2009 at 5:50 am
Of course, you’re correct. Let’s give due credit to the valiant Indians, who at great cost stopped the Japanese land advance in Burma. Or is that not what you were talking about?
August 7, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Soviets lost 23 million lives. USA lost 1 million.
August 8, 2009 at 10:33 am
US dead in WWII amounted to less that half a million, in the 430,000 range. Less than two per cent of Soviet dead. Nothing will ever deflate the glorious illusion that America beat the Nazis, though. On the other hand, of all the major combatants, America did, undeniably, win the war, if winning is measured by the usual metric of who gained the most from it after the body count ended.
August 8, 2009 at 12:01 pm
I’ll add that ultimately Hitler won the war for all by making such stupid Napoleon-with-Alzheimer decisions like attacking Russia in the first place.
I’m guessing the figures I cited included wounded with dead. Works for me. Sucks to love in a broken body.
August 8, 2009 at 2:13 am
But it would be nice if we could focus a little more on the fact that wars really aren’t good for much outside of creating piles of dismembered body parts, rubble and broken lives, and spend less time daydreaming about the valor of fighting the sui generis good fight.
Yeah, but with America, it’s always someone else’s country that has the rubble, someone else’s civilians turned into body parts.
Why hasn’t the US attacked North Korea? Because North Korea has nukes.
Back when the US decided to bomb Serbia for terrorising Kosovo, which I supported, it conspiciously did not address Russia doing exactly the same thing to Chechyna. It didn’t say shit to Russia about it. Why? Because Russia might possibly hurt the US.
American courage comes down to spending money and soldiers to inflict damage to someone else’s country. They will not take on anyone who might be able to strike back at their homeland. That isn’t a moral judgement – but it does cut through the mythology and bullshit.
And it’s also a damned good reason why Iran might want nukes. If the US thinks its a bad idea for other countries to want them, it shouldn’t give them such great incentives.
August 8, 2009 at 7:53 am
I saw a pink magnet ribbon the other day. It said, SAVE THE TA-TAS, apparently a reference to the growing movement to find a cure for breast cancer.
A Homer Simpson voice inside my head said, “Mmm. BIG boobies. Save the whales.”
Well, it did.
While I agree with curve’s assessment of the Taliban militarily, I don’t think we can totally discount Taliban as a potential destabilizer of Pakistani governance. It’s not that Taliban would or could ever take over Pakistan, but that Pakistan might become as crazy a place as Islamic Iran.
No no no, I don’t buy the notion that, once religious hard-liners are in place, basic sense will leave and they’ll start pushing nuke launch buttons like chimps pulling chains on antique water closets in some deranged composition of zoological performance art.
Nor do I believe the current Pakistan government is tenable. We’ve messed with it quite a bit in the past 3 decades; there is some evidence to indicate that members and associates of the previous administration were crucially helpful to Pakistan getting Der Bumb in der furst place (my kingdom for an umlaut key!). It’s one seriously rotten edifice.
That is why we’re there, I believe: to pick up the pieces. Things will grow soggier over there; we’ll aid some brutally effective maintainer of basic law and order and padlocks on the nukes, perhaps after a good bit of neat’n'tidy ethnic cleansing has transpired.
Maybe we’ll be successful enough at such misguided manipulations that, given the current economic decline, and the other chaotic conditions that good Muslims in the region have endured for decades at least in part because of the meddling of us and our ilk, some pan-Islam Sunni movement will prevail and unite the region with Iran as its implosion point (Shias placed in submission), Saudis on one side and Afg/Pakis on the other, and both of them controlling the center.
Crazy on the face of it, but give enough poverty/provocation and even advanced liberal societies, like Germany mid-19th-through-mid-20th century, go insane in a unified manner.
Well, someone’s got to come up with the next Son of Tom Clancy novel/game scenario, eh?
I don’t think that gold-limned exaltation of Greatest Generation heroism has much to do with yellow ribbon car magnets and our nation’s abrupt switch to a “war-time footing” in this decade. If one examines our domestic criminal justice system, you’ll see that we’re great believers in retribution and even trial by ordeal (I mean, people *voluntarily* watched the OJ trial on TV day after day).
I read that some Persian emperor, I think it was Xerxes, had the ocean flogged by, like, seventy men with bullwhips, after bad weather ruined a naval campaign of his.
Long ago, a friend quoted Humphrey Bogart saying, “Revenge is for suckers.” Sucker that I am, I believed him, although persistent research has yet to reveal any such quote by Bogie.
Still, it’s absolutely true. We homo saps are suckers for revenge.
Finally, I don’t think we fear the Nukes of Pakistan (or Russia or NK) much at all, except as a possible movie remake of the original TV series. Nukes are now well established simply as deterrents to their own use. I think we don’t mess certain nations like Russia because they possess vast mineral resources, especially fossil fuel, that we don’t want to be deprived of.
Pakistan nukes wouldn’t hurt us but their employment would sorely disrupt global oil supply.
I have no idea why we fuck with NK other than sheer brass-balled arrogant idiocy. NK is China’s goddam problem. Maybe we fuck with them to rub it in China’s face?
In geopolitics, a little rationality goes a long way. It is like Twain’s famous preface to Huck Finn:
“Persons attempting to find a motive in this narrative will be prosecuted; persons attempting to find a moral will be banished; persons attempting to find a plot in it will be shot.”
August 10, 2009 at 6:21 am
“Revenge is for suckers” is probably not Bogart, but Paul Newman in “The Sting.” He initially doesn’t want to help Robert Redford run a sting on Robert Shaw, because “revenge is for suckers.”
August 15, 2009 at 6:39 am
I owes you, mon. Thanx.
August 8, 2009 at 9:06 am
Pfft. 23 million. 1 million. Who fucking built more bombers and battleships? That’s the real WORK of war! TOYS TOYS TOYS! REMOTE CONTROLLED EXPLODING TOWEL HEADS! YEEEEEEE HAW!
August 8, 2009 at 10:00 am
Exactly. It’s always about the self-preservation of those at the top. Their people can generally go to hell, but the leaders?
I keep hearing about how Bin Laden doesn’t care whether he lives or dies, but he hasn’t spent years on the run for no reason. Hitler retreated to a bunker. And the Japanese, whom myth assures us would rather die than surrender…well, we know how that turned out.
The best deterrent will always be the megalomania and ego of the leaders. They may not give a shit about you and me, but they damn sure care about themselves.
August 11, 2009 at 4:50 pm
But it is important to note that a good deal of the myth about the Japanese “die (rather) than surrender” meme was from the US.
The propoganda of WWII towards Japan was VERY different from that towards the Germans and Italians. It also helped to justify dropping of the A-Bomb on Japan, even though at the time Japan was willing to consider surrender.
While I don’t totally disagree with you about “the best deterrent will always be the megalomania and ego of the leaders” it can increase conflict when both sides have such leaders.
August 15, 2009 at 6:49 am
USA leadership was, at end of WWII, about as crazy as that of our enemies. That war stripped everyone’s gears.
We didn’t intern Germans during WWII like we did Japs because they’re whiteys, like us.
We wanted an excuse to use the bomb so we could stand toe-to-toe with Uncle Joe. Not that we wanted to end Communism or the USSR. They were too convenient an enemy to vanquish, which we could have had we dropped nukes on Moscow and St. Petersberg.
Eezy-peezy. But them’s wuz our allies. Or almost white. Or something.
Easier to incinerate gooks than Krauts. World War elevates our racial tolerance, see?
August 8, 2009 at 10:40 am
Some further reading.
August 8, 2009 at 12:14 pm
It is my sad but firm conviction that we will relinquish empire only by one of two manners:
a) the way Britain did: by having to be rescued from an aggressor by some fucking upstart, perhaps one we once called our own, or
b) the way Germany and Japan did: having our ass royally kicked by an alliance of opposing nations.
I owe you big time for the Shatner Reads Palin clip on your blog. If you squint your eyes, the bongoist looks like Shatner’s buddy on Boston legal.
August 8, 2009 at 7:17 pm
“The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down Syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama’s ‘death panel’ so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their ‘level of productivity in society,’ whether they are worthy of health care. Such a system is downright evil.”
Who is the insane blog troll who said this? Oh it’s President Palin!
August 8, 2009 at 8:43 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buckfast_Tonic_Wine
August 8, 2009 at 8:55 pm
Off-Topic Surrealism:
http://wonkette.com/410377/meanwhile-in-the-latest-issue-of-parade-magazine
Who knew Bill-O had a secret man-crush on Obama X. Hussein?
Here’s hoping the Freepers make him into a very well-worn chew-toy.
August 9, 2009 at 8:25 am
All this talk about getting out of Afghanistan is just the Left’s ploy to distract the people from the really pressing issue at hand: that Obama needs a teleprompter.
– bi
August 9, 2009 at 9:50 am
The lubricant that made The Surge work? Money passed around liberally and judiciously. We could make a Ton O’ Friends in Afghanistan if we’d just pay top dollar for the annual opium crop. Think of how win-win this is:
(1) The starving farmers, who have had the shit kicked out of them by invading nations and serious drought for at least the last 3 decades, finally make enough money to stop dying so desperately poor. Maybe they don’t feel so happy with the Talibs and the war lords when there is a fatter wallet in town.
(2) Buying opium has to be a whole lot cheaper than all the military hardware, bodies, etc. needed for the current might makes right approach.
(3) We’d probably get our national needs for prescription narcotics handled cheaper than we currently do, though the Australians will be pissed that we aren’t buying from them anymore. (They grow the legal poppies used currently for this purpose).
(4) I really, really want to see the DEA/Just Say No complex of the US gubmit have to pay for poppy products.
A further point of order on the general topic: The Pakistani military became full of religious fanatics when we used it as our funnel to get money to the proto-Taliban as our proxy fighters against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. 9-11 didn’t happen because we ignored Afghanistan in isolation, it happened because we meddled heavily in order to give our old enemy the Soviets a big black eye, and THEN we ignored Afghanistan.
August 9, 2009 at 9:32 pm
Yeah, now it is understandable … And then I just not even know where it is not us with the title ….